High water along the Lumber River in Lumberton flowed into neighborhoods and low lying ares when Tropical Storm Debby moved through the region in 2024.
David Kennard | The Robesonian
Warm Atlantic to blame for higher-than-normal prediction
Tropical Storm Debby was downgraded from hurricane status quickly after making land fall in September last year, but still dropped heavy rain across Robeson County.
David Kennard | The Robesonian
LUMBERTON — Hurricane season is still several months away, but a well-established source of hurricane predictions is calling for an above-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2025
“We anticipate that the 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity,” states a report published Thursday by Colorado State University from the National Tropical Weather Conference in Texas. “Current La Niña conditions are likely to transition to [El Niño-Southern Oscillation] neutral conditions in the next couple of months; however, there remains considerable uncertainty as to what the phase of ENSO will be this summer and fall.”
The report explained that when waters in the eastern subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal in the spring, it tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. “These conditions will likely lead to a continuation of above-average water temperatures across most of the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2025 hurricane season,” stated Michsel Bell, principal investigator of the CSU Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software Team (TC-RAMS) “A warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water. Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation.
Robeson County, still gun shy from devastating storms over the last decade — including Hurricane Matthew in 2016 and last year’s Hurricane/Tropical Storm Debby — both of which submerged large parts of the county, has a keen interest in the 2025 forecast.
“The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 with the peak season from mid-August to late October,” according to a statement from the Robeson County Health Department.
“Hurricanes are powerful tropical weather systems with clear circulation and winds of 74 miles per hour or higher. When hurricanes move onto land, they sweep the ocean inward. They can cause tornadoes. They make heavy rains and floods. Hurricanes are grouped into categories based on the wind speed. The stronger the wind speed, the higher the category. Most damage caused by hurricanes is from flooding, not the strong winds,” according to the statement. “North Carolina’s coast is one of the nation’s areas most open to a direct hurricane strike because its coastline extends out. All areas of the state – from coastal and sound counties to the mountains – have been impacted by hurricanes in the past 20 years. Heavy winds, tornadoes, strong thunderstorms, flooding, storm surge and landslides can all be caused by hurricanes causing tragic damage.”
According to Thursday’s report, sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time. Speaking Thursday from the Tropical Weather Conference in texas, Phil Klotzbach, Research Scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, said “The Atlantic, while not as warm as last year at this time, is still running somewhat above normal, and a warmer Atlantic basically just provides more energy, more fuel for storms.”
“We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” report authors stated. “As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
2025 Hurricane Forecast
Named Storms: 17 (Average: 14)
Named Storm Days: 85 (Average: 69.4)
Hurricanes: 9 (Average: 7.2)
Hurricane Days 35 (Average: 27.0) Major Hurricanes: 4 (Average: 3.2) Major Hurricane Days: 9 (Average: 7.4)
Hurricane landfalling probability
The report also includes the following probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2025:
51% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%).
26% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%).
33% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (average from 1880–2020 is 27%).
56% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%).
David Kennard is the executive editor of the Robesonian. Reach him by email at dkennard@robesonian.com.
