Above average Atlantic hurricane season predicted in 2025

The hurricane experts at Colorado State University (CSU) warn of an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2025.

In its initial hurricane outlook issued on April 3, CSU predicts 17 named storms, 9 of which will become hurricanes and 4 reaching major hurricane status (category 3 or higher).

The 2025 prediction would be more active than the seasonal average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, but less than in 2024 when there were 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.

A couple different factors lead CSU to believe this hurricane season will be more active than usual.

First of all, sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin continue to run warmer than average, though not quite as warm as last season. Warm water gives hurricanes the fuel they need to grow stronger, so warmer water temperatures tend to produce more abundant, stronger hurricanes.

If it seems like forecasters predict an above-average season almost every year lately, that's true, and the warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are a big reason behind that. There is almost certainly a connection between the warmer ocean temperatures and global warming.

The other main factor expected to increase the number of storms this year is the absence of El Niño. Climatologists do not expect El Niño to develop in 2025. When the Pacific Ocean is not in an El Niño state, atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic are more favorable for hurricanes because there is less wind shear to rip storms apart before they develop.

It's impossible to know in early April how many storms will threaten the U.S., or where they will make landfall. We won't know about the track of specific storms until tropical systems develop in the Atlantic later this spring/summer.

New England is statistically overdue for a landfalling hurricane. The last one was Hurricane Bob, which made landfall in Newport, Rhode Island in 1991.

It's best to begin preparing before hurricane season so you will know what to do and how to stay safe if a hurricane threatens New England in 2025. Storm Team 10 will be with you every step of the way, tracking storms when hurricane season begins on June 1.