Researchers release Atlantic hurricane season predictions. What to know.

Recovery is still underway in Tampa Bay after last year’s historic hurricane season. Many residents have not returned to their storm-damaged homes, and businesses remain shuttered along coastal areas.

And yet, researchers have begun releasing their predictions for this year’s approaching hurricane season.

It could be another busy one.

Colorado State University, a school renowned for its hurricane research, said it expects “above-normal” tropical activity this year. The early-season prediction, released Thursday, stems from warm sea-surface temperatures, and the potential for conditions that kindle tropical activity.

University researchers said they expect 17 named storms, of which nine will become hurricanes and four will become major hurricanes (a storm with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher).

“Forecasting the future is hard, whether you’re forecasting weather, whether you’re forecasting sporting events, political races, all that stuff,” said Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at the university.

“But we also find that you can see a lot by looking, basically by going back into the past. There are clues in the atmosphere and ocean system that can tip us off as to whether the current hurricane season is going to have above or below normal activity.”

Colorado State’s researchers aren’t the only ones calling for an above-normal season, which runs June 1 to Nov. 30.

A similar forecast was released Tuesday by the Climate Adaptation Center, a Sarasota-based nonprofit. Bob Bunting, the center’s CEO, said he expects 17 named storms, of which 10 will become hurricanes and five will become major hurricanes.

“In this day and age, when we know so much, we have to share it with the community, and hope the community uses this information to inform their decisions,” Bunting said Tuesday during the outlook presentation.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an average season consists of 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three muscle up to major hurricanes.

Colorado researchers plan to update the hurricane outlook in June, July and August. They said question marks remain ahead of the hurricane season — like how far and wide warm waters will persist this summer, and if a La Niña will arrive during peak season.

Either could bring more intense storms: Warm waters act as fuel for tropical activity, and a La Niña could pave the way for more storms. Experts predict that 2025 hurricane activity will be about 125% of the average season ranging from 1991 to 2020. Last year’s season was about 130% of the average.

Klotzbach compared the prediction for this year to 2017, one of the most active seasons on record that brought hurricanes Harvey to Texas, Irma to Florida and Maria to Puerto Rico.

Despite uncertainty, researchers’ warnings remain consistent: All it takes is one land-falling storm for residents to feel major effects.

Tampa Bay learned the lesson several times last year. Six months later, and the region is still recovering from the onslaught of hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton.

Here’s the 2025 early season forecast, broken down.

Sea surface temperatures

In late March, sea surface temperatures in the area where most hurricanes form (from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean Sea) were warmer than normal, according to researchers.

“The degree of warmth varies considerably depending on where you look in the main development region,” Klotzbach said in an email to the Tampa Bay Times. “Some places are a bit cooler than normal, while the Caribbean is quite a bit warmer than normal.”

A graphic from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows sea surface temperatures across the globe. Water temperatures are running above normal in parts of the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean. Researchers say warmer waters can provide fuel for storms during the hurricane season. [ The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ]

Colorado researchers said hot waters in the eastern subtropical Atlantic and the Caribbean in March often suggest an active hurricane season. Warmer waters lead to an unstable environment, which can ramp up storm conditions, they said.

Areas of the Gulf of Mexico along Florida’s west coast are running slightly cooler than average. Bunting attributed this to a chilly winter. But he expects coastal waters will quickly warm.

While Atlantic waters are hot, sea surface temperatures remain below the astounding record heat from last year. The record-temperatures led to one of the most aggressive early season predictions in the university’s history. Researchers last April predicted 11 hurricanes (the highest of any early season outlook), which proved correct.

La Niña? Or a neutral phase?

The globe is currently experiencing a weak La Niña.

La Niña is one part of a three-phase, year-to-year climate pattern that also includes El Niño and a “neutral” phase.

Researchers expect the La Niña — which can heighten storm activity — will wane in the next couple months and lead to a neutral phase.

However, Colorado experts are uncertain what phase will take hold come peak hurricane season, around August to October. Models show a wide range of possibilities, however most anticipate neutral or La Niña conditions at the height of the season.

Federal forecasters agree that the globe will fall into the neutral phase of the climate pattern (when there is no La Niña or El Niño) in the next few months. By peak season, forecasters said neutral conditions are slightly favored over La Niña conditions. By the October to December timeframe, La Niña or neutral conditions are equally likely, with each having a 42% chance of occurring.

The combination of a warmer-than-normal Atlantic and neutral or La Niña conditions usually supports more tropical activity, researchers said.

What’s the likelihood of a land-falling storm?

Researchers said there is a 51% chance (nearly a coin toss) that a major hurricane will make landfall somewhere along the U.S. coast this season. For comparison, that number was 62% last season.

Zooming in closer, university researchers said the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, has a 26% chance of experiencing a major hurricane, up from the typical 21% chance.

University researchers used federal data of past hurricane tracks to calculate the possibility of storms falling within 50 miles of states along the East and Gulf coasts of the country this season.

In all instances, Florida had the highest probability of any state.

There is a 92% chance of a named storm falling within 50 miles of Florida, a 65% chance of a hurricane doing so, and a 35% chance of a major hurricane landing within that distance.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, largely considered the gold-standard forecast, does not release its 2025 outlook until mid-May.

Bunting said the Climate Adaption Center released its April forecast to allow residents extra time to know their risk and prepare. Bunting spoke in Sarasota, just a few miles from where Hurricane Milton made landfall last year.

“The reason we do this, is so we have longer to think about this and do something about it,” he said.

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