Atlantic Canada faces a higher-than-average risk of direct storm impacts during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, according to a forecast from AccuWeather.
The weather forecaster expects “a dynamic and potentially volatile Atlantic hurricane season” this year. Five North American regions — Atlantic Canada, Texas, Louisiana, the western coast of Florida, and North Carolina — face a higher risk of direct impacts this hurricane season compared to the historical average, AccuWeather says in a press release Wednesday.
AccuWeather’s forecast predicts 13 to 18 named storms this season. Seven to 10 of those storms will strengthen into hurricanes, the company predicts. Three to five storms are predicted to strengthen into major hurricanes, which is Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. Category 3 hurricanes have wind speeds between 178 km/h and 208 km/h, and can cause devastating damage.
“Climatology, weather patterns, water temperatures, and many other factors all point to yet another active Atlantic hurricane season, with more tropical storms and hurricanes forming compared to the historical average,” AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter says in the release. “We expect fewer named storms this year compared to last year.
“The total number of storms is not truly what defines a hurricane season; it is the impacts to land and populated areas. It only takes one landfall to create a devastating season.”
Last year saw 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. The 30-year historical average is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Canada impacts
In Canada, the remnants of various hurricanes swept through the Atlantic provinces in 2024. For example, Hurricane Oscar brought heavy rain and strong winds to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in October 2024. The Atlantic provinces also saw effects from hurricanes Ernesto and Beryl.
The hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. But AccuWeather hurricane experts say early tropical development in May is possible this year due to exceptionally warm water temperatures expected across much of the Atlantic basin.
Several factors play a key role in forecasting the frequency and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in 2025, AccuWeather says.
One of the biggest factors is the water temperatures in the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Water temperatures are well above historical averages right now, and they are forecast to remain at elevated temperatures into the heart of the hurricane season. “Warm waters extending to depths hundreds of feet below the surface provide additional energy for storms to develop and intensify,” AccuWeather says.
Also, the frequency, intensity and peak of tropical activity this year could be heavily influenced by the location of a high pressure area over the open Atlantic, water temperatures off the western coast of Africa, water temperatures in the open Pacific Ocean, and dust that can impact storms and blow across Africa.
“A rapid intensification of storms will likely be a major story yet again this year as sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat…across most of the basin are forecast to be well above-average,” says AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.
Feature image by iStock.com/FrankRamspott
