We have made it to Opening Day, one of my favorite days of the year. Hope springs eternal, everyone except the Chicago Cubs and the majority of the National League West is in first place and fans of every team can dream big.
I know that I will not be an especially productive member of society today as I plop myself in front of a big screen somewhere and watch the Milwaukee Brewers take on the New York Yankees, along with all of the other action around Major League Baseball.
I have my peanuts and Cracker Jack ready to go, but first, I need to offer my annual installment of picks for the season that is on deck. On Tuesday, I detailed the outlook for the Brewers’ prospects in 2025, so now we will look around the rest of the big leagues to see what might be in store over the next 162 games.
Aaron Carlson, News Graphic sports editor
American League East
Baltimore: Things have changed a bit for the Orioles heading into this season, as the club lost former Brewers ace pitcher Corbin Burnes and slugger Anthony Santander to free agency, but the Birds still have Gunnar Henderson — possibly the top young player in the game — as well as standout catcher Adley Rutschman to build around. The strength of the franchise remains a large batch of prospects, such as Colton Cowser and Jackson Holliday, who will contribute this year and others that could be part of summer deals to help fill any holes the club has as it battles for a division title.
New York: The Yankees won the division with 94 wins last season, three better than Baltimore, but it has not been a kind spring for the defending AL champions. Ace pitcher Gerrit Cole will miss the season and reigning rookie of the year Luis Gil will miss several months, creating two massive holes in the starting rotation. Juan Soto signed with the Mets as a free agent over the winter and now Giancarlo Stanton has injury concerns that have him out of action indefinitely. The Bronx Bombers will probably find a way to make the playoffs, and starting pitcher Max Fried is a key acquisition, but there are too many questions marks at this point to make them the favorite to win the division.
Toronto: Last year was a disappointment for the Blue Jays, but the club has the players to turn things around this season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is one of the best players in the game and is playing for a 500-plus million dollar contract as an upcoming free agent. I expect Bo Bichette to bounce back from an injury-plagued season. Signing Santander as a free agent will give the club a power boost and trading for infielder Andres Gimenez was a nice move. The team also picked up several pitchers over the winter, including likely future Hall of Fame starter Max Scherzer. It is not out of the question they could flip their 74-88 record from 2024 around.
Boston: It is not like the Red Sox did anything wrong during the offseason, and picking up pitchers Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler, as well as infielder Alex Bregman, are good moves, but it remains to be determined if that will push them much above the 81-81 record the squad posted last season. If someone picked the BoSox to take second in the East, I would not argue with them, but I like the rosters assembled by three other teams just a little bit more.
Tampa Bay: The franchise that seemingly enjoyed a 15-year run of having the Midas Touch might be running out of juice. The Rays’ stadium situation was tenuous even before Hurricane Milton damaged the roof of Tropicana Field to the point that the club will play its home games this year at Steinbrenner Field, the spring training home of the Yankees. Predictably, the team did not make much of a splash in free agency, but catcher Danny Jansen, infielder Ha-Seong Kim and designated hitter Eloy Jimenez are capable players that could contribute to the success of the team this season. However, the team does not have much margin for error and starting pitcher Shane McClanahan, who missed all of last year due to injury, left a spring training start Saturday with an apparent arm injury. The team cannot afford many losses like that.
American League Central
Detroit: My longshot pick to win the Central last year is my selection once again this year. The Tigers were spinning their wheels through the first half of last year and then caught fire down the stretch to finish 86-76 and snag a playoff spot. The team has a potentially strong rotation with Jack Flaherty returning to the team after being traded last summer, Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal, Reese Olson, former No. 1 draft pick Casey Mize and rising prospect Jackson Jobe. I am not overly optimistic about the team’s offense, but every team in this division has question marks, and if the team can solve a hole or two in the lineup and give the pitchers some run support, they will be the team to beat in the Central.
Minnesota: It seems as if every year I bash the Twins and underestimate what they will accomplish in the upcoming season. Last year, I was finally accurate in my assessment when I picked the club to finish in the bottom half of the division standings. This time around, I think the club will make a move to second place, mainly because I believe the other teams that finished ahead of the Twinkies, other than the Tigers, will take a step back this year. I don’t believe the team added anyone that will make a huge impact, but some decent pitching and full seasons from players like Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa would push the team up the ladder a bit.
Kansas City: The magic of baseball is that a team can unexpectedly chalk up 86 wins and make the playoffs when nobody saw it coming. The Royals accomplished that feat last year. Bobby Witt Jr. emerged as an MVP candidate, the great Salvador Perez had a terrific season and players such as Kyle Isbel and Vinnie Pasquantino made big contributions. A pitching staff without any household names also kept the club in every game, with Seth Lugo posting 16 wins and a 3.00 earned run average. The biggest addition of the winter was a trade for Jonathan India, which could give the offense a spark, but if the team is going to make another playoff push, the pitching staff will have to cobble together a repeat of what it did in 2024.
Cleveland: Last season I was at a game and studied the Guardians' lineup as the club was swept by the Brewers at American Family Field and had no idea how the team was running away with the Central. I still don’t know how they pulled that off. I really like Jose Ramirez, I think he will make the Hall of Fame, but he can’t be the entire offense. The team went 92-69 last year in part because of a fantastic bullpen, but it would be asking a lot for a repeat of that performance this season and I think in order to be in playoff contention that would have to happen again. If everything goes right, they could challenge for a playoff spot, but I just don’t see it happening.
Chicago: If you can name two players on the team’s 40-man roster, you are a better person than I am, and I will even spot you Luis Robert Jr. That being said, the safest prediction for 2025 is that the White Sox will win more games than the 2024 edition, which finished a dreadful 41-121. Let’s move on, there is nothing to see here.
American League West
Seattle: This is a bit of an upset pick in a division in which any of three teams could take first place. I believe that Randy Arozarena will have a bounceback season after being traded to the Mariners last year and batting just .219. The club under-performed a bit last year and did not do much over the winter, but I don’t think it needed to in order to stay afloat in a division in which none of the other likely contenders got substantially better.
Texas: The 2023 World Series champions took a big step backward last year, which made sense to me because I didn’t think they were the best team in baseball when they won the Commissioner’s Trophy. I am not convinced they will be substantially better this season after suffering through a campaign in which injuries hit the team hard, but I do think they will post a better record than the 78-84 mark they finished with last season. They should finish a little above .500 and challenge for a wild card spot, possibly more if Jacob DeGrom (nine starts in two years with the Rangers, 20 starts over the past three years and 47 appearances over the last five years) can defy his career-long trend of injuries.
Houston: Long the team to beat in the West, the Astros have won the division seven times in the past eight years. However, the 88 wins the team earned last season were its fewest since 2016 (excluding the shortened 2020 campaign) and it seems unlikely the club will get to that level in the upcoming season after losing Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Justin Verlander, among others. There is still talent here, including Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez in the lineup, starting pitcher Framber Valdez and closer Josh Hader, but the squad is more likely to be find itself battling for a wild card than a division crown by September.
Sacramento: Get used to it, as the Athletics will be playing in Sacramento for the next few seasons, although the city is not an official part of the team name. Las Vegas is the franchise’s future home and is sponsoring a patch on the A’s jersey this season. Anyway, the club spent more money over the winter than it has in a long time, partly to appease the MLB Players Union to assure it does not potentially lose some of its revenue sharing income. There are still not a lot on recognizable names on the roster at this point and you won’t recognize Sutter Health Park if you come across an A’s home game on TV, but the team will probably win a handful more games than the 69 wins it earned last season.
Los Angeles: On one hand, the team that tries. Team owner Arte Moreno has spent money on free agents. The Angels have had Mike Trout for more than a decade. They won the sweepstakes to get Shohei Ohtani when he came over from Japan and they attempted to resign him during the 2023 offseason before he went to the Dodgers. However, it is also the club that overpaid for Albert Pujols in 2012, Joey Hamilton in 2013 and Anthony Rendon in 2020. Rendon is likely out for the entire season and has played just 257 games since arriving in 2020. Remember in “Major League” when Jake Taylor shows up and one of the coaches says, “I wish we had him two years ago,” and the general manager incredulously responds, “We did.” That’s the life of an Angels fan. The team will probably fare better than last season’s 63-99 record. On the other hand, don’t make plans to watch Trout play in the postseason for the first time since 2014, because his team won’t be there.
National League East
Philadelphia: The Phillies are more or less running it back this season with a roster that went 95-67 last year. Any of three teams could easily take the division title this year and I think all of them will make the playoffs. Of those contenders, I like the top of Philly’s rotation with Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler better than the other clubs in the East. The lineup, featuring the likes of Nick Castellanos, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner will produce plenty of runs. This team will be playing in October.
Atlanta: This outfit was my pick to win it all last year but was decimated by injuries. Despite losing outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. and pitcher Spencer Strider for just about all of 2024, the Braves still won 89 games and made the playoffs. Those two players will be back at some point in the first half of the season and will help the team return to the playoffs. A division title might by just a little out of reach, but the squad’s pitching staff is solid with Chris Sale at the top of the rotation followed by a bunch of talented young arms.
New York: Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso is a formidable trio atop the batting order. The rest of the Mets’ lineup is not quite as strong, but the club will score runs. If the team had the same pitching potential as the Braves or Phillies, I would probably pick them to win the division, but I am not sold. However, they should claim a wild card and it would not be a shock to see them win an exciting race in the East.
Washington: The Nationals are young, have emerging talent and will take fourth in the division. They will be knocking on the door to join the other three clubs in the East title picture before long, possibly starting next season. CJ Abrams, Dylan Crews and James Wood are three quality talents that the team will build around for the long haul and the depth of the pitching staff is improving. They won’t contend for a playoff spot, but a .500 record is within reach.
Miami: Recent franchise highlights include moving the hideous home run sculpture that used to be beyond the fence in left-center field to outside of the stadium prior to the 2019 season. Sorry, I can’t even pretend to have enthusiasm about the Marlins. They were bad last year, they will be bad this year, they will be bad next year. And, they will probably still be bad in 2030.
National League Central
Chicago: The main reason I am picking the Cubs is because they were able to find a team — the Yankees — nice enough to take Cody Bellinger’s contract off their hands so they could reallocate those financial resources. Picking up Tucker from Houston was a nice addition to the roster and Justin Turner will give the club a veteran who can get on base. The Central title could go to any of four different teams if things break just right for any of the contenders, but this is probably the safest pick of those in the running.
Milwaukee: I covered the prospects for the 2025 extensively on Tuesday. I expect the club to win at least 81 games this year and possibly as many as 90. It should be a fun summer at American Family Field.
Cincinnati: The Reds have some exciting players — Elly De La Cruz is a must-watch attraction in my book — and the team made some solid additions to its pitching staff during the offseason. The biggest pickup of all is manager Terry Francona. The 2024 campaign was a backward step after the 2023 unit was something of a surprise contender, but I expected that last year and think they will reverse that and be a factor in the Central this season. They probably have a lower floor and ceiling than the Brewers and Cubs, but could easily finish ahead of both teams.
Pittsburgh: The Pirates have some great young pitching, led by Paul Skenes. What is missing in the steel city is offense, and I don’t think the Bucs did not do enough in that department to jump ahead of anyone with their offseason moves. The team was in contention for a wild card as late as August last year, then things kind of fell apart down the stretch. They will not be a fun team to play against this season, but I just don’t think they pack enough offensive punch to earn a playoff spot despite a potentially strong pitching staff.
St. Louis: I was a little surprised the Cardinals won 83 games last year and tied for second in the division standings. I don’t see them doing it again this year. There is a youth movement underway and it could expand to full-fledged rebuilding by the trade deadline.
National League West
Los Angeles: The Dodgers are already 2-0 after sweeping a two-game series with the Cubs in Japan last week, so the club will probably go wire-to-wire while winning the West. If you’ve followed baseball the past few offseasons, you know why they are the team to beat. If I could come up with a reason why this team won’t win the division, I would be happy to offer it here, but nothing comes to mind.
San Diego: The real race in the West is what team will take second. The Padres gave the Dodgers a legitimate scare in the playoffs last season and the Friars have a strong roster that will make a push for another playoff appearance this year. They have a really good lineup from top to bottom and a couple very good starting pitchers, which would make them contenders to win any other division.
Arizona: The Diamondbacks will also pile up runs and they actually probably have a better starting rotation than the Padres. I really should pick them to finish second in the division, but I have a feeling the Padres will take that slot because I like their offensive a little more. The Snakes picked up Burnes as a free agent to pair with Zac Gallen, giving the club a pair of pitching aces. The batting order offers little in the way of easy outs for opposing pitchers, with new first baseman Josh Naylor slotting in nicely in the middle of the lineup.
San Francisco: Year after year the Giants finish with more wins than I expect them to, and this year will probably be more of the same. We all like Willy Adames, but I don’t see him being a game-changer for what I still view as an uninspiring lineup in the bay. If Verlander and Robbie Ray recapture their Cy Young form behind ace Logan Webb, the team would have a great pitching staff, but this looks like an 81-win team to me in the best-case scenario.
Colorado: If the team can borrow Bo Nix from the Broncos and he can pitch as well as he played quarterback, perhaps the Rockies could be a surprise playoff team just like the city’s NFL franchise was. Short of that happening, it will be another long summer for baseball fans in the mile high city. The team went 61-101 last year and I expect more of the same this time around.
