'Volatile hurricanes' expected in 2025, AccuWeather predicts. What it means for Texas

Meteorologists have released their forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, and it doesn't look great.

AccuWeather is predicting 2025 could be a year with "volatile hurricanes" similar to those seen in 2017 and 2023. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey caused catastrophic flooding across Texas in August, followed by Hurricane Irma hitting parts of the Caribbean and Florida in September.

"AccuWeather is forecasting near to above the historical average number of named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, accumulated cyclone energy and direct impacts to the United States," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.

Last year’s forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season warned of an extremely active year, predicting up to 24 named storms, but the season ended up only slightly above average — similar to this year’s projections.

Forecasters expect 13 to 18 named storms in the Atlantic basin, with the average season typically producing 14. The season could record between seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes that reach Category 3 strength or higher.

In 2024, the National Hurricane Center issued 347 forecasts for the Atlantic basin, which recorded 18 named storms, including five major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. The season began with Alberto and Beryl, both making landfall in Texas during early summer — the only named storms to strike the state last year.

What should Texas expect for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?

Texas, western Florida, North Carolina and Atlantic Canada all face a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this year with an increased number of storms, according to AccuWeather.

The prediction is based on what forecasters call "analog" years, with similar weather conditions to those expected in 2025.

Experts also warn that storms could rapidly intensify shortly before making landfall, similar to the deadly Category 5 Hurricane Beryl, which broke multiple records for its rapid development, before striking Matagorda, Texas.

The storm transitioned from tropical storm to major hurricane with huge increases in wind speed, gaining 65 mph in 24 hours and 95 mph in less than two days. It was one of the earliest storms to undergo such dramatic rapid intensification in the Atlantic basin.

What factors play a role in 2025 hurricane season forecast?

Four factors will play a key role in the frequency and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in 2025, AccuWeather said:

• Dust that can impact storms that blow across Africa. Dry air and Saharan dust can limit tropical development as they move across the Atlantic.  
• Location of an area of high pressure over the open Atlantic: The Bermuda-Azores high over the central Atlantic Ocean can send storms and hurricanes west across the ocean before they curve north. 
• Water temperatures off the western coast of Africa. "If water temperatures heat up off the coast of Africa, we could see an enhancement of tropical development.”
• Water temperatures in the open Pacific Ocean. Water temperatures in the Pacific can spawn a La Niña and El Niño near the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which either boost or suppress tropical activity in the Atlantic basin.

AccuWeather hurricane experts said neither La Niña nor El Niño is expected to be present during the first half of the hurricane season, but that could change by September, October, or November. The peak of hurricane season runs from mid-August to mid-October.

When is hurricane season?

Hurricane season begins June 1 and concludes on Nov. 30.

When was the earliest hurricane ever?

The first tropical cyclone of the 1938 Atlantic hurricane season formed on Jan. 3, making it the earliest recorded tropical storm and hurricane in history.

The second-earliest was Tropical Storm One in 1951, which formed on Jan. 4. That season then went more than four months without another hurricane, with the next one forming on May 15 — the earliest a second storm has ever developed. The season also ended late on Dec. 11.

Contributing: Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY Network-Florida