Concerns Over NOAA's Cuts Grow With Forecast for a Busy Hurricane Season

A forecast for an active hurricane season this summer has heightened concerns that the Trump administration's cuts to the federal government's weather information system will undermine the ability to accurately track and predict tropical storms.

"Loss in hurricane forecast skill has the potential to cost lives and lead to billions in avoidable damage," Yale Climate Connections meteorologist Jeff Masters told Newsweek via email.

Masters is a former hurricane hunter with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which includes the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center. NOAA suffered sharp cuts as part of the Trump administration's effort to dramatically reduce federal government employment. Masters is among the former NOAA scientists and officials raising concerns about the effects those cuts might have on storm-tracking capabilities this hurricane season.

AccuWeather released its outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season Wednesday and predicted three to six direct storm impacts, with Texas, Louisiana, western Florida, North Carolina and Atlantic Canada all facing higher-than-average risks.

The report, which relies in part on NOAA data, called for between seven and 10 storms to strengthen into hurricanes and for three to five of those to become major storms. The 30-year historical average is seven hurricanes and three major storms.

AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in a briefing for media that sea surface temperatures across much of the Atlantic basin are already higher than average.

"That's a lot of energy for tropical systems to work with," DaSilva said. Climate change is pushing sea surface temperatures higher and causing waters to warm at greater depths, adding fuel for storms to quickly grow in strength as they approach the shore, he said. "That's really what contributes to rapid intensification."

Marine heat waves last year and in 2023 caused record warmth for waters along the U.S. Southeast and parts of the Gulf Coast and Caribbean, and DaSilva said he expects 2025 will likely be among the warmest on record as well.

Those are challenging conditions for the scientists charged with tracking storms and informing the public about potential threats. This year, however, the nation's top meteorological agency will enter hurricane season with fewer personnel than in previous years.

Masters, who is also a co-founder of the popular weather site Weather Underground, said his biggest concern is the degradation of forecasts due to the erosion of basic data collection such as weather balloons.

He said that 14 of 83 U.S. upper air balloon observation sites are doing "partial or no launches." Staffing cuts have affected 11 of those stations, he said, and another three suffer from equipment shortages or damage to stations from coastal erosion.

"Data from weather balloons and aircraft are the two most important ingredients for accurate forecasts, and we will likely see a degradation of several percent in forecasts of hurricanes approaching a U.S. landfall," Masters said.

Masters said the greatest loss of data is in the Midwest. That's not the first place that comes to mind when one thinks of hurricanes, but he explained that strength and timing of low-pressure systems crossing the Midwest are dominant factors determining the paths of storms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Without a clear view of what's happening in the air above the Midwest, he warned, the National Hurricane Center's tracking of a major storm's landfall could be off target.

Further, he said, staff at NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center was cut by roughly a quarter.

"This group is responsible for the computer forecast models that form the bedrock of U.S. weather forecasting, including hurricane prediction," Masters said.

A NOAA spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.

Some NOAA staff that were cut have been brought back to work while others were told they would be returned to the payroll but placed on administrative leave pending the outcome of lawsuits challenging the legality of the layoffs.

Former NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said uncertainty about the extent of the staff cuts and elimination of programs makes it difficult to predict the exact impact on storm forecasting.

"Any reduction in force, terminations or retirements/resignations, however, will mean NOAA will not be able to provide the same level of service we've seen in recent years," Spinrad told Newsweek via email.

He said that if staffing at weather forecast offices is reduced, there will likely be delays in the delivery of forecasts.

"Even if NOAA were allowed to fill the vacant positions," Spinrad said, "it is unlikely those new employees would have the experience to ensure that there is no degradation of services for this year's hurricane season."