AccuWeather hurricane forecast for 2025 calls for near normal to slightly above normal activity

(This story was updated to add new information.)

Toasty ocean temperatures and feisty gales off Africa are galvanizing tropical cyclone activity for the coming hurricane season with a leading forecast released today predicting near normal to above normal storm numbers.

AccuWeather meteorologists said the current withering La Niña climate pattern could go dormant mid-summer but return in the fall to backload the 2025 season similar to 2024, when a storm lull went to full throttle in September.

In a year when South Florida will recognize the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Wilma — still the strongest Atlantic basin hurricane on record based on central pressure — AccuWeather is predicting 13 to 18 named storms, including up to 10 hurricanes. Of those, three to five could be major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

Also, the overall pattern supports three to six direct impacts on the United States, with the eastern Gulf coast, eastern Texas and the Carolinas having higher-than-average risks of a landfalling storm, according to AccuWeather. An average year has four U.S. landfalling storms.

"The number that really matters at the end of the day is impacts to people," said AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva. "We're looking at clustering in the northern Gulf Coast, west coast of Florida and up into the Carolinas. These are the areas we are concerned about."

Years where the atmospheric set up was similar to the current pattern include 2012, when Superstorm Sandy devastated areas of New Jersey and New York, 2017, when Category 4 Hurricane Irma made landfall on Cudjoe Key, and 2023, when Category 3 Hurricane Idalia hit in the Big Bend region of Florida.

The year 1984 is also similar to the current atmospheric regime. Tropical Storm Isidore made a late September landfall that year near Jupiter.

AccuWeather predicts up to 18 named storms in 2025 when a normal season has 14

An average hurricane season has 14 named storms, which include seven hurricanes. Of the seven hurricanes, three are major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

Spring predictions for a storm season that doesn't start until June 1 can be notoriously difficult to get right because of the so-called spring predictability barrier — a period where seasonal changes can conceal the atmosphere's intent for the summer and fall.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration typically waits until late May to release its forecast. Colorado State University is scheduled to release its forecast on April 3. WeatherBell Analytics released is prediction Feb. 7, calling for 15 to 19 named storms. And the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, or ECMWF, said this month that it is forecasting a near-normal season.

"On average, the forecasts aren't terrible, but they're not great either," said FOX Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross about the early-season hurricane predictions in a segment on FOX Weather. "If you can't really forecast accurately this time of year what's going to happen in the Pacific with La Niña or El Niño, that makes the forecast more fuzzy."

Hurricane season forecasters often lean on the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, climate pattern for their tropical cyclone predictions. ENSO includes the hurricane-killing El Niño and the storm-friendly La Niña.

With El Niño unlikely this year and La Niña getting a 50% chance of transitioning to a neutral pattern July to September, AccuWeather meteorologists also relied on other atmospheric ingredients for their predictions.  

Those include warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures in large areas of the Atlantic Ocean. In the main runway between African and the Caribbean, temperatures are running between 2 and 5 degrees warmer than average near the Lesser Antilles. That continues into the Gulf of Mexico, now referred to as the Gulf of America by the U.S. government.

Cooler water is hugging the coast of Africa and west coast of Florida, but the shallows of the yawning continental shelf can warm quickly as diving cold fronts retreat for the summer.

AccuWeather also looked at the African easterly jet — a swift-moving ribbon of winds that creates undulations in the air also known as African easterly waves. Those waves are the embryos for hurricanes as they spin off the west coast of the continent.

While a La Niña influence quiets wind shear, allowing storms more room to grow, robust and prolific hurricane seasons have also come during neutral ENSO years.

The 2005 hurricane season was a neutral period, and it spawned 28 named storms — a record breaker until 2020, when 30 storms formed. The 2005 storms included Hurricane Katrina, which reached Category 5 power before dipping to a Category 3 at landfall along the southeast Louisiana and Mississippi coasts, and Hurricane Wilma.

But the 2014 hurricane season had just eight named storms and it also occurred during a neutral phase.

"It's always tricky with a neutral pattern because it can kind of break either way," DaSilva said. "However, neutral years are very close to La Niña years."

Hurricane Wilma made landfall in southwest Florida in 2005 as Category 3 storm

Wilma, which reached Cat 5 status, made landfall Oct. 24 as a Category 3 hurricane south of Marco Island near Cape Romano. Wilma buzz-sawed through the state, reaching Palm Beach County as a Category 2 storm.

If the looming 2025 season reaches AccuWeather’s peak forecast of 18 named storms, it would tie 2024's total number.

Although La Niña wasn’t officially deemed present until Jan. 9 of this year, the spate of storms during the latter half of 2024 mimicked what might be typical of a La Niña fall.  

Twelve named storms formed after the climatological peak of the 2024 season in early September. Seven hurricanes formed in the Atlantic after Sept. 25 — the most on record for that period, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Three hurricanes made landfall in Florida last year. Category 1 Hurricane Debby hit near Steinhatchee, Florida on Aug. 5, Hurricane Helene made landfall near Perry in Florida’s Big Bend region on Sept. 26 as a Category 4 storm, and Hurricane Milton landed near Siesta Key as a Category 3 storm on Oct. 9.

"Last year was a very busy year," said DaSilva, noting the 11 hurricanes that spun up in 2024. "I think this year will be a little bit less active than last year, but still above average."

Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate, weather, and the environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. Help support our local journalism, subscribe today.