Weather Wednesday: Low-profile weather and its impacts

Guam and our neighboring islands of the western North Pacific are quickly pushing through the “off season” of weather. Of course, as those pleasant, sunny and dry days are also weather, the weather never really stops.

For most of us, we think of our year as being made up of typhoon season and...the rest of the year. In most cases, that is rightfully so as we have a distinct peak in tropical cyclone activity around the Marianas from July to November.

It is important to remember that tropical cyclones can and do happen in our region throughout the year, such as Bavi (March 2015), Surigae (April 2021), Malakas (April 2022), Wutip (February 2019) and Mawar (May 2023).

This year has been quiet, with respect to tropical cyclones, but it has been busy in other areas.

Tropical cyclones (tropical depressions, tropical storms, typhoons and super typhoons) naturally receive a “lot” of fanfare on social media, from broadcast media, civil authorities and the National Weather Service. This is rightfully so, due to the tremendous amount of uncertainty with intensity and track forecasts – and due to the potential for significant impacts.

However, weather does not need to spin in circles, have a number assigned to it, nor have a name added to it, to have impacts. I call these the “No-Name” weather events.

Some of these events come in quickly, with little or no warning (passing disturbances resulting in heavy rainfall and flash flooding); or they creep in slowly and quietly, sometimes with significant impacts to life and agriculture (drought across the outer islands of Micronesia).

Those shear lines that sometimes bring clouds, gusty winds and showers to Guam, often come and go with little fanfare, and sometimes, they keep well away and to our north, but the larger swell and waves will eventually reach us, causing high surf and strong rip currents on an otherwise nice day.

This year has been a mild year so far for weather events across the region. However, we’ve seen heavy showers cause problems recently across the Federated States of Micronesia, where saturated soils and runoff brought down some trees and power lines in Pohnpei; moderate to severe drought across the CNMI and Yap State; a number of wildfires on Guam and other islands in the region; and several water/surf-related incidents resulting in casualties across the region.

All of these events are typical for our region, with any number of smaller, localized weather patterns affecting any number of islands. This is a reason why the NWS is a 24/7 operation: to monitor and assess weather conditions and forecasts around the clock.

However, this is also why we urge folks to be weather-ready: knowing of any weather threats and concerns that could affect your plans and activities.

Seas, surf and rip currents often result in more casualties on Guam than typhoons. Perhaps this is due to the extensive media coverage, communications and preparedness efforts for the high profile tropical cyclones than the more common, lower-profile, high surf and strong rip currents.

Public anxiety increases when a large weather feature with that number or name is attached to it, and for good reason. However, we should also be resilient to these no-name weather events.

In a few more months, we’ll be coming into our “TUTT Season,” dealing with warmer temperatures, and our lightning threat will increase. I’ll be talking about these in the coming weeks. We’ll also start seeing more tropical disturbances as we head toward summer and fall. They can be weak, but can still cause significant impacts for those at sea, and for folks on land.

National Weather Service outreach and education efforts are year-round, in the schools, in the community and in coordination with our government stakeholders to help ensure that we all are weather ready and aware of our natural surroundings.

Our web page is operational 24/7 to keep the most up-to-date information available to you at www.weather.gov/gum.

Always remember, when in doubt, reach out.

We are here to assist you for those major weather events and the smaller ones, too.