Federal Budget 2025 live updates: Anthony Albanese's election budget gamble rocks betting markets as odds shift dramatically

The mood within the government on the day of yesterday’s budget was considerably brighter than it’s been in recent months.

No doubt buoyed by the tightening polls and the slight improvement to the PM’s personal ratings over recent weeks.

Ministers were out drinking on the Monday night at traditional watering holes like the bar attached to the Realm Hotel near parliament house.

Not drowning their sorrows but rather enjoying the changing political climate ahead of the election.

To be sure, it is the Opposition Leader Peter Dutton who is now somewhat under the pump.

Expectations had risen unrealistically high in recent months, with many who should know better starting to predict that a change of government might be in the offing after just one term in power.

Were that to happen it would be the first time a one term government failed to secure re-election since 1931.

It is not entirely off the cards, of course, and anything can happen once the campaign starts. But a Coalition victory seems highly unlikely.

The odds of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese becoming re-elected have improved, according to several betting platforms in Australia.

Sportsbet had Labor at $2.50 while the Coalition was at $1.57 at the start of March.

The odds narrowed with both parties at $1.90 on Monday.

The budget appears to have boosted Mr Albanese's favourability with the odds for the ALP at $1.72 while the Coalition dipped to $2.10 on Tuesday night.

TAB has similar figures with Labor at $1.75 and the Coalition at $2.10.

Ladbrokes had slightly closer odds with Labor at $1.85 and the Coalition at $1.90.

The odds for a Labor minority was at $2.40 and a majority at $6.50, while a Coalition minority was at $3.25 and a majority at $4.25.

The fact three betting giants now have Labor at more favourable odds represents a huge comeback for the party, which has been the underdog for most of the year.

Several polls have also revealed it will be a tight contest.

The latest YouGov poll showed the Opposition making up ground on the government, with the major parties now tied 50-50 on a two-party preferred basis.

In the previous poll, the government had held a 51 to 49 per cent lead, off the back of the response to ex-tropical cyclone Alfred and public reaction to the government's backing of Ukraine.

A Freshwater Strategy poll released on March 17 showed Mr Dutton's approval rating was lower than it was for Mr Albanese.

Mr Dutton's net approval rating sank to -12 while Mr Albanese's rose eight points in the last two months to -10.

The result marked the first time Mr Albanese has taken the lead as preferred prime minister since October.

Newspoll has put the Coalition in front, 51 to 49 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, in polls taken since January.

Mr Albanese has yet to call a date for the election - though it is widely speculated it will be held on May 3 or a week later on May 10.

The Albanese government has pledged to inject millions of funding into some unexpected projects from mosquito and yellow ant control to an LGBTQIA+ museum, opals and even a 'panda diplomacy'.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers handed down his fourth federal budget on Tuesday night, outlining a string of cost of living relief measures including electricity rebates, tax cuts and cheaper medicines.

But some unique projects buried in the budget missed out on the headlines.

Non-complete clauses will be banned for employees earning less than $175,000-a-year.

The clauses are usually used to prevent high-level employees and executives from switching to a competitor immediatley after leaving their old workplace.

Some bosses have been using the clauses to prevent low-paid workers from making the transition as well.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the ban would boost the economy by $5billion.

'And so this ticks every box to us,' he said.

'Proper economic reform, competition policy is making our economy more productive and boosting participation at the same time.'

'Non-competes are holding too many Australians back from switching to better, higher-paying jobs.

'People shouldn’t need to hire a lawyer to take the next step in their career, or permission from their old boss if they want to be their own boss, and turn an idea into a small business.'

The policy will impact around 3million workers.

Public policy think tank CEDA claimed the budget failed to adequately address housing supply and affordability.

'We're not seeing anything that's really addressing the underlying issues around supply,' chief economist Cassandra Winzar told ABC's PM program.

'A lot of the community is concerned about housing, it's something that really impacts everyone.

'And there's nowhere near enough in this budget, or nowhere near enough in previous budgets either, to really shift the dial here.'

The budget will expand the 'Help to Buy' scheme, create 18,000 homes under the Housing Australia Future Fund and ban foreign ownership for two years.

Australia Post is facing major financial challenges, with treasury budget documents revealing a substantial loss and the possibility of future government intervention.

In the 2023–24 financial year, Australia Post reported a pre-tax loss of $88.5 million. its second annual loss since 2014–15.

‘It reflects the way in which digitisation of the global and national economy is changing how many people and businesses use postal and related services,’ Treasury said in Budget papers.

Independent senator Jacqui Lambie earlier slammed the budget - saying it appeared to favour rich people more than small businesses.

'Labor is not a friend of small business, I never imagined, they're not a friend of small business, they are the enemy,' she said.

'Up here this week which are talking about dirty, stinking salmon sitting in Macquarie Harbour, and yet that tax write-off for small businesses finishes on July 1.'

Ms Lambie had been referring to the popular $20,000 instant asset write-off scheme the government chose not to extend.

The instant asset write-off allowed small businesses with a turnover of less than $10million to deduct:

- the full cost of eligible depreciating assets costing less than $20,000 that are first used or installed ready for use between July 1, 2024 and June 30, 2025.

Grattan CEO Dr Aruna Sathanpally added the budget appeared to cater to 'middle Australia'.

'We have tax cuts but not tax reform,' she told ABC Insider's David Speers.

'We have got a boost to primary healthcare spending which is good but not the system reform that we need to see on how we spend.

'And we have got energy rebates rather than energy efficiency.'

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver told the ABC the budget was 'pretty uninspiring'.

'Most of the measures had already been announced,' he said.

'The tax cuts were a welcome surprise giving back some bracket creep but are only worth $10 a week when implemented in full, which will buy less than a "sandwich and a milkshake".

'The government's commitment to child care and training is welcome but there is not really a lot in the budget to boost productivity.'

Independent economist Nicki Hutley said the government seemed to only be focused on the next two months.

'Ahead of an imminent election, Treasurer Chalmers has chosen the budget platform not to focus on the fiscal, but to convince Australians that the worst of the pandemic's hits to the economy, first on growth and then inflation, are well and truly behind us,' he said.

'He's thrown in some sweeteners for voters, but these are relatively restrained.'

Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ high-powered and glamorous wife Laura was slammed for being ‘tone deaf’ last year after wearing a $1,900 outfit to his Budget speech, which was all about the cost of living crisis.

People are still very much feeling the pinch in 2025 but the former political advisor-turned magazine editor appears to have learned her lesson by turning up in a dress a fifth of the price.

Ms Chalmers wore a modest yet stylish black dress as she supported her husband while he handed the 2025-26 Budget down in Canberra on Tuesday night alongside one of their three children.

Independent Senator Jacqui Lambie ripped into the $17billion tax cuts announced in the budget.

'Giving rich people more tax cuts is not a viable option,' she said.

'I don’t know how many times we need to tell them.

'Cuts you give to us, can you imagine the billions of dollars you’ve wasted on giving people like that, people like me who have more than enough money instead of putting that forward to those people who need that more.

'This is disgusting, it is lazy and quite frankly I want all those rich people to know if you are taking that energy payment you are a welfare recipient.'

The Albanese government has signalled the end of debit card surcharges, but stopped short of banning the practice.

The budget, released on Tuesday, took aim at the unfair charges that were being slapped on some Aussies due to their choice of payment method.

‘The Government is addressing unfair excessive card surcharges to get a better deal for consumers at the checkout,’ the budget overview said.

Australia is forging ahead in its support for Ukraine, setting aside $81million for its embassy in Kyiv and soldier training.

The government had already committed $1.3billion in military aid to Ukraine before the release of Tuesday’s Budget.

That figure has now increased with $45million earmarked in 2025-26 for Operation Kudu, the ADF’s training of Armed Forces of Ukraine recruits in the UK.

The Albanese government has pledged millions of dollars to support Jewish and Palestinian communities after months of flaring tensions over the war in Gaza.

The funds, listed in the Budget released on Tuesday, included $31.4million to rebuild the firebombed Adass Israel Synagogue in Melbourne, and $4million for the Project Rozana Foundation to foster ‘capacity-building in the health sector in the Occupied Palestinian Territories’.

It comes after a spate of anti-Semitic incidents raised concerns about the effects of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on Australian communities.

The high-profile cases included firebombings and vandalism against Jewish targets, and two Bankstown nurses who allegedly threatened to kill Israeli patients.

The government’s ‘Supporting Social Cohesion’ measure in the Budget appeared to be aimed at tamping down some of those tensions.

The package of $178.4million would be doled out over five years from 2024-25.

It included $15 million for the Aspire Performance Centre for a ‘centralised sports and education hub’.

Another $10million would support independent multicultural media outlets to ‘fast track their transition to sustainable news media’.

African-Australian communities would be allocated $20million as part of the package.

A further $7.7million would be put into the Economic Pathways to Refugee Integration program to help boost refugee employment.

The government also earmarked $1.6 million over two years from 2024–25 to provide mental health support for Australians impacted by the conflict in the Middle East.

An extension of a measure in the 2023-24 Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO), the cost would be partially met from within the existing resourcing of the Department of Health and Aged Care.

Tensions rose as Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor appeared on ABC's 7.30 program.

Mr Taylor implied more than 40,000 public service jobs would be dumped if Opposition leader Peter Dutton wins the next election.

'We are at 41,000 additional public servants,' he said.

'We have said that we will get back to where we were pre-Labor government when we were last in power and of course that was 41,000 less so that’s what we’re aiming to get back to.'

Host Sarah Ferguson demanded a more definitive answer on whether or not the public servants would be sacked.

'Can you answer the question?' she asked.

'We have seen a substantial increase in the numbers tonight and that is adding to the cost that all Australians are having to pay and it is one of the reasons why we have got red ink as far as the eye can see,' Mr Taylor said.

Ferguson shot back: 'So to be clear you are saying that you’re going to bring a policy that will result in 41,000 jobs [being cut]?'

Mr Taylor insisted an announcement would be made in the coming weeks.

He was also pressed on when a Coalition government intended to bring the budget back to surplus, however he failed to provide a timeframe.

'What we see in this budget [is] $170 billion of deficits, an extra $400 billion of spending and taxing since Labor came to power and no pathway back to prosperity,' he said.

'So no timeframe on that,' Ferguson said.

Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor described the budget as 'a budget for the next five weeks, not the next five years'.

'This is a budget for an election, not one for our country’s future prosperity,' he said.

'At a time when living standards have suffered the biggest collapse on record and when the security environment is the most dangerous since the Second World War, Labor’s budget has failed to deal with the economic and national security challenges our country faces.

'Labor’s cruel hoax tax changes in 2026-27 fail to restore the standard of living you have lost after three years of Labor.

'The Coalition will not support these tax changes that do nothing to address the collapse in living standards under Labor.

'Seventy cents a day, in a year’s time, is not going to help address the financial stress Australian families are currently under.

'This is an election bribe by a weak Prime Minister.'

Jim Chalmers was asked to address comments made by Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor after he described the tax cuts as a 'cruel tax hoax'.

'That’s the first we’ve heard of it,' he told ABC's 7.30 program.

'Sounds like they are not supporting our tax cuts.

'That’s what happened the last time we tried to give every taxpayer a tax cut, Peter Dutton said we should call an election.'

Host Sarah Ferguson questioned the timing of the tax cuts given the budget was 'already suffering from a structural deficit'.

'No, we’ve done this in a very responsible way,' Dr Chalmers said.

'We are providing tax relief to every Australian taxpayer. If he doesn’t support that, he should say so.'

Dr Chalmers described the tax cuts as 'fiscally responsible'.

'There is an appetite, obviously, and an enthusiasm, often, to provide the tax cuts and we have to provide those we think the budget can afford and we have to do that in the most responsible way,' he said.

'And that is what has guided us, to give us as much cost-of-living help as we can in the most responsible way.'

Victoria is expected to see a population boom in coming years as fewer people move to Queensland and Western Australian from other parts of the country.

Melbourne was the only big city market where house prices went backwards in 2024, as other capitals saw double-digit increases.

Victoria has also been struggling economically since Covid, with Melbourne the world’s most locked down city under former Labor premier Daniel Andrews.

Australian women are proving they really can do it all - except be paid the same amount as their male counterparts.

Federal Treasury analysis has revealed the number of women holding down jobs has hit historic highs across the country, even though they continue to shoulder most the responsibility for raising young families and are still viewed as the nation’s ‘natural caregivers’.

It may be one of the most contentious dates on the calendar but the Albanese Government has thrown its weight behind Australia Day after dedicating millions of dollars to celebrating the nation’s birthday next January.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers revealed the government would give $10m to the National Australia Day Council this financial year after releasing the Federal Budget on Tuesday night.

Government spending is set to hit the highest level in almost four decades outside of Covid as debt climbs above $1trillion for the first time ever.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers used the word 'responsible' six times in his Budget speech.

He even suggested Labor had delivered 'responsible economic management' despite forecasts of Budget deficits for the foreseeable future.

Labor has admitted renters and first-home buyers are struggling - and is promising immigration levels will halve from recent record highs.

The Treasury Budget papers forecast 260,000 new overseas migrants, on a net basis, would be moving to Australia in 2025-26.

This would be half the record-high levels approaching 550,000 in late 2023, leading to a housing crisis.

Aussies were quick to take to social media to slam the budget after it was revealed several cost-of-living relief measures would be doled out.

Several took aim at the tax cuts, claiming it simply wasn't enough. The tax cuts equate to about $5 a week - or 70c a day.

'Pathetic, maybe just a cup of coffee a week tax cut from our ALP federal government,' one wrote.

'You know the government is scraping the bottom of the barrel when the biggest announceable in the budget is a $5/wk tax cut which won’t kick in for another 15 months,' another added.

'So what new taxes are they going to introduce to cover their losses,' another added.

'Even after the last tax cut which was put in place by the Coalition , thanks to all the new taxes Labor came up with we were worse off.'

The Albanese government has raised defence spending to 2.2 per cent of GDP in the Budget - well short of the 3 per cent of GDP that the Trump administration has demanded of Australia.

The country’s total defence spend in 2024-25 was about $53.94billion, or 2 per cent of GDP.

That figure is set to change, with the Budget listing estimated spending in 2025-26 at about $57.58billion, or about 2.2 per cent of GDP.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's son Nathan has made a rare appearance at Parliament House.

Nathan joined Mr Albanese's fiancee Jodie Haydon with the pair watching on as Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivered his budget speech on Tuesday night.

Nathan came under the public spotlight in 2024 after it was revealed he was a 'plus one' member of Qantas' exclusive Chairman's Lounge.

Shortly after winning the prime ministership in May 2022, Mr Albanese asked then-Qantas CEO Alan Joyce to make Nathan, 23, a member of the Chairman's Lounge, an invitation only perk of the airline, a new book claims.

Mr Albanese defended the arrangement saying his son became his 'plus one' after his marriage to former Labor MP Carmel Tebbutt ended.

Every Australian worker will be getting $268 tax cut as part of Anthony Albanese's bid to win over voters battling the cost-of-living crisis.

The relief is going up for two years in a row, adding up to $536, as income tax rates are reduced from 2026 and 2027 for Australians in part-time work.

From 1 July 2026, the 16 per cent tax rate for incomes earned between $18,201 to $45,000, will be reduced to 15 per cent – leading to tax relief of $268.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers described the cost-of-living relief as 'modest but will make a difference'.

Jim Chalmers has revealed the budget will address five main priorities.

'Helping with the cost of living — strengthening Medicare, building more homes, investing in every stage of education — and making our economy stronger, more productive and more resilient,' he said.

It came as he addressed concerns about the global economy and claimed 'storm clouds are gathering'.

'Trade disruptions are rising, China's growth is slowing, war is still raging in Europe, and a ceasefire in the Middle East is breaking down,' he said.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers did manage to pull one very small rabbit out of his hat on budget night.

A tax cut for everyone. One percent off the lowest marginal tax rate which applies to everyone who earns more than $18,000 a year.

A second percentage point cut coming in just over two years’ time.

It might not sound like a lot, but when everyone gets a tax cut the quantum of the hit to the budget is significant.

All up these tax cuts will cost the budget $17 billion, delivering most Australians around $500 more in their take home pay each year.

Labor has promised to deliver two tax cuts starting from next year that will offer ‘hip pocket help for households’ but come at a cost of $17.1 billion in a desperate bid to woo voters ahead of the impending federal election.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers handed down the Budget on Tuesday night with a raft of cost-of-living measures designed to appeal to battling Aussies in a last-ditch, pre-election pitch.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivered his budget speech at 7.30pm on Tuesday.

'It is a plan with cost of living with two new tax cuts and higher wages, more bulk-billing and help with medical bills, cheaper medicine and less student debt,' he said.

'It is a plan to build Australia's future with more homes, more investments in skills and education, competition reforms and a future made in Australia.'

Dr Chalmer said inflation was down and incomes were rising.

'Unemployment is low. Interest rates are coming down. Debt is down, and Groth is picking up momentum,' he said.

'On all of these fronts, our economy and our Budget are in better shape than they were three years ago.

'Now, this progress has been exceptional but not accidental.

'The credit belongs to Australians in every corner of our country. We've come a long way together, but there is more work to do.

'This Budget is our plan for a new generation of prosperity in a new world of uncertainty.'

Dr Chalmers claimed the 'worst is behind us and the economy is now heading in the right direction'.

'But there is more work to do because we know that people are still under pressure,' he said.

'The cost of living is front of mind for most Australians, and it is front and centre in this Budget.

'We know the welcomed improvements in the aggregate numbers don't always immediately translate to how people are feeling and faring.

'We've made a lot of progress together, but we know that many people are still doing it tough.

'Our plan to rebuild living standards starts with cost-of-living help and wages growth.'

Dr Chalmers said tax cuts were on the way for Aussies.

'Every Australian taxpayer will get a tax cut next year and the year after to top up the tax cuts which began in July,' he said.

'This will take the first tax rate down to its lowest level in more than half a century.

'These additional tax cuts are modest, but they will make a difference. The average earner will have an extra $536 in their pocket each year when they are fully implemented.

'Combined with our first round of tax cuts, this is $2,190, and the average total tax cut will be $2,548, or about $50 a week.'

Opposition leader Peter Dutton took aim at Anthony Albanese and his pre-election promise to cut energy bills for Aussies by $275.

'The Prime Minister promised on 97 occasions that power bills would fall by $275, instead they went up by $1300,' he said during Question Time.

'We have had the largest fall in living standards in history and our country is divided. Twenty-nine thousand small businesses have gone broke.

'How can struggling Australian families and businesses possibly afford another three years of the Albanese government?'

Mr Albanese has vowed to slash $150 off the power bills for small businesses and households if he is re-elected.

Housing Minister Clare O'Neil talked up the government's commitment to expand the 'Help to Buy' scheme ahead of the release of the budget.

Homebuyers will be able to purchase their first property with just a two per cent deposit. The government will take an equity stake up to 40 per cent.

'Now there is much more work to do here,' she said during Question Time on Tuesday.

'Housing has been central to our first term and if re-elected it will be central to our second.'

Australians are demanding cost of living relief in Tuesday's pre-election Budget as they continue to battle skyrocketing grocery prices, medical bills and rent.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says his fourth federal Budget will provide 'substantial, meaningful and responsible cost-of-living help'.

He has also insisted the three Rs - 'repair, relief and reform' - will guide his economic decisions.

Shadow Finance Minister Jane Hume told the ABC the Liberals won't 'dishonour any arrangements' that are currently in place.

'We want to make sure they are productive at home,' she said.

'We won’t dishonour any arrangements that are in place but if you take a job with the public sector, there is an expectation that it is a job that involves working from the office.

'Arrangements can be made but it has to work for the individual, the team and department. That is an effective way to deliver an efficient public service.'

It comes after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese vowed to keep WFH in place if he was re-elected.

Finance Minister Katy Gallagher told the ABC she would not give too much away ahead of the release of the budget on Tuesday night.

'It is a work in progress where we're chipping away, making investments, repairing the budget where we can, lowering debt and making sure we can provide that cost-of-living relief to people while they are doing it tough,' she said.

'Budgets are hundreds, if not thousands of decisions, that all interrelate to each other.'

Ms Gallagher said she did not want to steal Treasurer Jim Chalmers' thunder.

'You will need to wait this evening to get the budget,' she said.

'The picture of the budget builds on all of those three themes.

'It builds upon the budgets we have handed down before. It is a work in progress where we’re chipping away, making investments, lowering debt and making sure we can provide that cost-of-living relief to people while they are doing it tough.'

An audience member on Q+A has revealed the harsh reality many middle-aged and older people face when trying to get a job in Australia.

In Monday night's episode of the program, which focused on the Federal Budget, Charlotte - who described herself as 'a lady in her 50s' - exposed the ageism that prevails in the job market.

'I am finding it very difficult to get employment. No-one wants to employ me, unfortunately, at my age,' she said.

David Koch has slammed Labor's plan to extend its energy bill rebates for all Australian households, arguing the handouts should only go to those most in need.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has defended his decision to extend a $150 energy bill rebate to even the richest households - plus an estimated one million small businesses - rather than apply a means test.

Mr Albanese announced the decision on Sunday after the Australian Energy Regulator estimated household electricity bills would skyrocket by up to nine per cent for residents in NSW, Queensland and Victoria from July 1.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers' fourth Budget is being handed down tonight, with an election due to be held by May 17 and Labor the underdog in opinion polls.

Australians are getting electricity rebates for another six months as part of Labor's cash splash which also includes reducing prescription costs, cutting student debt, subsidising steel and aluminium manufacturers, and rebuilding the treasurer's cyclone-hit home state of Queensland.

Several social media influencers have been invited to attend the budget lock-up.

Hannah Ferguson is among the people who revealed they would be in Canberra on Tuesday.

'I need to be in parliament by 2.30pm to go through security and get ready for the federal budget lock up,' she wrote in an Instagram post.

Ms Ferguson runs 'Cheek media' and openly shares her dislike for Peter Dutton.

Her company sells partisan merchandise which includes the slogan: 'Good morning to everyone except Peter Dutton.'

Aussies were quick to express their outrage following the revelation.

'Albanese turning the budget lockup into a political process by picking and choosing who attends the lockup,' one wrote.

Another added: 'The inclusion of these fools will result in dis/mis information surely. Something the Labor party wanted to create laws for.'

'My experience of most so called influencers is that they are vacuous and unqualified to provide commentary.'

A third added: 'Albo has zero integrity and this is a classic example of it. He doesn't care about taxpayers, he cares about likes.'