Informing humanitarians worldwide 24/7 — a service provided by UN OCHA

Philippines

DSWD DROMIC Preparedness for Response Report #1 on Tropical Storm “ULYSSES” as of 10 November 2020, 6PM

Attachments

Situation Overview

Issued at 5:00 pm, 10 November 2020 TROPICAL STORM "ULYSSES" INTENSIFIES FURTHER AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD.

  • Track: On the forecast track, Tropical Storm “ULYSSES” will move generally west-northwestward today, then turn westward tomorrow morning. On the forecast track, the center of “ULYSSES” is more likely to make landfall over Quezon on Thursday early morning, with a close approach of Catanduanes and Camarines Norte tomorrow afternoon and evening, respectively. However, slight southward shift in the orientation of the track forecast shows an increasing likelihood of landfall over Bicol Region tomorrow afternoon or evening.

  • Intensity: “ULYSSES” is forecast to intensify into a severe tropical storm tonight. Owing to favorable conditions, this storm may rapidly intensify into typhoon category by tomorrow morning and reach its peak intensity (130-155 km/h) tomorrow afternoon or evening. Landfall at or near peak intensity is highly likely.

  • Strong winds: Areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) #2 will be experiencing damaging gale- to storm-force winds while those under TCWS #1 will have strong breeze to near gale conditions during the passage of the storm. Based on the intensity forecast, the highest wind signal to be hoisted during the passage of “ULYSSES” will be TCWS #3

  • Heavy rainfall: Today, the tail-end of a cold front (shear line) will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains due to “ULYSSES” will also be experienced over Aurora, Quezon, Bicol Region, Eastern and Central Visayas, Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Bangsamoro. Moderate to heavy rains associated with the rainbands of “ULYSSES” will begin affecting Bicol Region and portions of Eastern Visayas tomorrow. Flooding (including flashfloods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and/or those that received significant antecedent rainfall. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.

  • Storm Surge: In the next 48 hours, moderate to high risk of storm surge of 1.0 to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of CALABARZON, Aurora, Camarines Provinces, Catanduanes, Albay, Metro Manila, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Romblon, and Marinduque, the western coastal area of Masbate including Burias Island, and the northern coastal areas of Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro including Lubang Island. These storm surges, which may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast can cause life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation.

At 4:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm "ULYSSES" was estimated based on all available data at 375 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 500 km East of Daet, Camarines Norte (14.4 °N, 127.6 °E )

Source: DOST-PAGASA Severe Weather Bulletin