Tropical Depression Emily's heaviest rainfall has pushed offshore

Rick Neale
Florida Today
11 p.m. National Hurricane Center update on Tropical Depression Emily.

Update 12:11 a.m. Tuesday:

Tropical Depression Emily's heaviest rainfall has pushed offshore — but a few remaining rainbands will continue produce moderate to heavy rain as Emily moves offshore, the National Weather Service reported at midnight.

Meteorologists warn of wind gusts up to 40 mph within these rainbands.

Rain is now falling in downtown Melbourne.

Update 11:27 p.m. Monday:

The National Weather Service station in Melbourne has released updates describing how Tropical Depression Emily may impact the Space Coast overnight:

• The storm should move offshore between Cape Canaveral and the St. Lucie Inlet.

• Rain bands associated with Emily should push onshore north of Cape Canaveral and offshore south of the Cape, resulting in heavy localized rainfall. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches may occur, with some areas receiving up to 3 inches of rain.

• Heavy rainfall may cause temporary flooding of highways, streets and intersections, as well as poorly drained areas.

Update 10:58 p.m. Monday:

Tropical Depression Emily is now located just north of Lake Okeechobee, and the storm system continues moving eastward at 9 mph, the National Hurricane Center reported.

Maximum sustained winds have fallen to 30 mph. Emily is about 35 miles west of Vero Beach.

"A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected early Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Emily will move offshore of the east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning and then accelerate northeastward over the western Atlantic through Wednesday," the NHC's 11 p.m. advisory states.

The National Hurricane Center is not expected to issue another complete advisory until 5 a.m.

Update 8:40 p.m. Monday:

Chance of precipitation tonight has dropped to 40 percent in Titusville, 60 percent in Melbourne and 70 percent in Sebastian, the National Weather Service reported.

The National Hurricane Center is not expected to issue a complete advisory on the former Tropical Storm Emily until 11 p.m.

Update 5:02 p.m. Monday:

Tropical Storm Emily has weakened into a tropical depression 70 miles west-southwest of Melbourne, the National Hurricane Center reported at 5 p.m.

Maximum sustained winds have dipped to 35 mph, while Emily's east-northeast movement has increased to 12 mph.

Some additional weakening is possible as Emily moves across Central Florida tonight, forecasters believe.

The National Weather Service forecast chances of precipitation in Brevard County have increased to 90 percent this afternoon and 80 percent tonight.

Update 2:00 p.m. Monday:

The center of Tropical Storm Emily has moved onshore south of Tampa Bay, with a new location about 30 miles southeast of Tampa and 35 miles southwest of Bartow.

Maximum sustained winds have dropped to 40 mph, and Emily is moving east about 10 mph, the National Hurricane Center reported.

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a flood advisory for northwestern Brevard County until 3:15 p.m.

Shortly after 1:05 p.m., Doppler radar indicated a nearly stationary band of showers that developed along a stalled frontal boundary north of Emily. The flood advisory also includes portions of Seminole, Lake, Orange and Volusia counties.

 

Update 11:13 a.m. Monday:

At 11 a.m., Tropical Storm Emily had advanced within about 35 miles southwest of Tampa and 30 miles northwest of Sarasota, the National Hurricane Center reported.

Emily was moving east at 9 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 60 miles from the center of the storm.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect from the Anclote River to Bonita Beach.

Original story:

Tropical Storm Emily could bring 3 to 4 inches of rain, lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 50 mph to localized portions of Brevard County before the system sweeps offshore overnight.

At 8 a.m., Emily was located 45 miles west-southwest of Tampa — or 171 miles southwest of Cape Canaveral — with maximum sustained wind of 45 mph, the National Hurricane Center reported.

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The storm was slowly tracking eastward at 8 mph, and landfall should occur this afternoon. Forecasters expect Emily to turn toward the northeast and speed up tonight or Tuesday.

Emily will likely weaken into a tropical depression by the time it reaches the Space Coast, said Tim Sedlock, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service station in Melbourne.

"We're looking at an increase in shower and isolated thunderstorm activity. Highest rainfall amounts will be southward of a line from, say, Orlando to Titusville," Sedlock said.

On the whole, Sedlock said Brevard should receive 1 to 2 inches of rain, with heavier precipitation in some areas. He predicted that Emily will weaken into a depression over inland Florida, then re-strengthen back into a tropical system over the western Atlantic Ocean.

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Today's Brevard forecast calls for an 80 percent chance of showers with possible thunderstorms, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation overnight is 70 percent, with a low around 74.

Tuesday — on the "back side" of the storm, Sedlock said — expect a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mostly cloudy skies, and a high near 88. Tuesday night's forecast also lists a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mostly cloudy conditions, and a low around 75. 

Contact Neale at 321-242-3638, rneale@floridatoday.com or follow @RickNeale1 on Twitter.